2435 Long St · New Johnsonville, TN 37134

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,107 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2000 1.48 ac lot $68/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2435 Long Street, a manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,107 square feet situated on 1.48 acres in New Johnsonville. The property provides a combination of usable land, privacy, and potential that is increasingly difficult to find at this price point. The layout is functional with a central living area connecting to the kitchen and dining space. A split bedroom design offers separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms, creating flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The home is currently occupied and several core systems are in working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical. The water heater has been replaced within the last year. The property is on city water with a septic system in place and sits on a permanent foundation. Condition reflects opportunity. The home will require updates including flooring repairs and cosmetic improvements, along with consideration for aging components such as the roof and HVAC (approximately 26 years old). No known structural issues have been reported.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Central living area
• Split bedroom design

Tags

• USABLE LAND
• PRIVACY
• CENTRAL LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN AND DINING SPACE
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($976 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Humphreys County (rural): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #103 of 139 in TN (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Humphreys County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humphreys County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $61k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,571
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -57.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $8,982
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $34,942
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37134

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $166/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $555

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $75,000 1085-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

   Welcome to 2435 Long Street, a manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,107 square feet situated on 1.48 acres in New Johnsonville. The property provides a combination of usable land, privacy, and potential that is increasingly difficult to find at this price point. The layout is functional with a central living area connecting to the kitchen and dining space. A split bedroom design offers separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms, creating flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The home is currently occupied and several core systems are in working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical. The water heater has been replaced within the last year. The property is on city water with a septic system in place and sits on a permanent foundation. Condition reflects opportunity. The home will require updates including flooring repairs and cosmetic improvements, along with consideration for aging components such as the roof and HVAC (approximately 26 years old). No known structural issues have been reported.

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $89,900 Active 1085-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

   Welcome to 2435 Long Street, a manufactured home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,107 square feet situated on 1.48 acres in New Johnsonville. The property provides a combination of usable land, privacy, and potential that is increasingly difficult to find at this price point. The layout is functional with a central living area connecting to the kitchen and dining space. A split bedroom design offers separation between the primary suite and secondary bedrooms, creating flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The home is currently occupied and several core systems are in working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical. The water heater has been replaced within the last year. The property is on city water with a septic system in place and sits on a permanent foundation. Condition reflects opportunity. The home will require updates including flooring repairs and cosmetic improvements, along with consideration for aging components such as the roof and HVAC (approximately 26 years old). No known structural issues have been reported.

3. 2008-04-14
   soldstatus $61,170
4. 2003-04-23
   soldstatus $40,000
5. 2000-02-28
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $166 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$31/mo · 220.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$166
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$937
• − Management: −$937
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$699
• After-tax cash flow: $3,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humphreys County
• NCES district ID: 4701980
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,248
• Composite: 19.14/100
• National rank: #8829
• State rank: #103 of 139 in TN

Livability — New Johnsonville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #13365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,922

Population outlook (Humphreys County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,256 people
• By 2030: 16,654 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 15,437 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,238 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 11,971 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 10,575 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humphreys

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.1) · D 21.4% · R 77.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.2pp toward R · 2008: -2.9pp · 2024: -56.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.1 2020: R+49.8 2016: R+41.5 2012: R+13.5 2008: R+2.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.33%
• Current HPI: 300.0917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $75,000 GCAR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $89,900 GCAR
• 2008-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $61,170 Public Records
• 2003-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.