319 Margaret Ave

Natchez, MS 39120

$195,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,773 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 487 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $16/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($16/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 487 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 487 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.