7148 N 48th Ave

Glendale, AZ 85301

$245,280C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,286
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,738/yr
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.53%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $68,678

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (14.1% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AZ, #3,235 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Apollo High School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,198 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.5% in Glendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,107/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 3741% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.