21 Tarpon Rd

East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,195,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax + insurance: −$1,598
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,143
• Net cashflow: $197/mo
• Annual: $2,364/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $334,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.02M (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.2% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $10,205/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.