21 Tarpon Rd

East Quogue, NY 11942

$995,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 221 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$1,515
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$971
• Net cashflow: $-3,081/mo
• Annual: $-36,974/yr
• Cap rate: 3.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.43%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $995k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $451k (54.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $462k (53.5% below list).
• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($876k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $451k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $330k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 6.7% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,623/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.