21 Tarpon Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition 0.26 ac lot Garage $878/sqft · at area comps Est $1.223M · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is the one you have been waiting for in the coveted Shinnecock Shores of East Quogue. Bring your boat, your SUP, your kayak and use this waterfront location to it's full potential. Completely gutted and renovated in 2019 this home offers a new Kitchen and two beautiful new bathrooms. Gather around the large reclaimed wood center island, or the cozy fireplace under the vaulted ship-lapped ceilings. The open floor plan has your eating and living spaces flowing together and then out onto a covered porch to enjoy the water views or into your bright and sunny flex space/home office/yoga room. Heated flooring in both the Master Bath and Yoga room, high end appliances, custom California closets, tankless on demand hot water tank, full house water filtration system. Too much to list, come grab this one before it's gone!

Key facts

• Dock and bulkhead
• Natural light
• Great room

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• CANAL OFF SHINNECOCK BAY
• DOCK AND BULKHEAD
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.02M (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 9.2% in East Quogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,205/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,020,523 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,223,247
• List price: $1,195,000
• Delta: -2.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Whiting Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	16mo	$899,000	$692	69
25 Dolphin Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-15%)	1mo	$1,015,000	$875	67
33 Dolphin Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-2%)	15mo	$1,100,000	$827	66
14 Whiting Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (+13%)	4mo	$775,000	$504	66
22 Barracuda Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-13%)	0mo	$915,000	$769	65
6 Sanderling Ln	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,462 (+7%)	11mo	$1,375,000	$940	50
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-13%)	17mo	$800,000	$672	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-181,185
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-141,975
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,075,000 ($790/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$674 /mo · $8,088/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,143
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,956

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $873	-5% $535	+0% $197	+5% $-141	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-206	+0% $197	+5% $600	+10% $1,003
Rate	-1.0pp $799	-0.5pp $501	base $197	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Tarpon Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	1724	$4,750	$2.76	0d	1	0.04mi
38 Baycrest Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	2.5	1260	$9,500	$7.54	4d	1	0.82mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	93d	1	0.88mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	66d	1	1.11mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	93d	1	1.12mi
41 Homewood Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1228	$5,500	$4.48	0d	1	1.12mi
452 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1510	$4,800	$3.18	38d	1	1.16mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	93d	1	1.18mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	0d	1	1.20mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	73d	1	1.26mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	54d	1	1.26mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.30mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	93d	1	1.34mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$9,000	$8.90	24d	1	1.37mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	8d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageDriveway
• Utilities: Septic tankCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: DockShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigeratorKitchen islandEat-in kitchenChef's kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomChef's kitchen with kitchen islandEat-in kitchenOpen floor planOpen kitchenPrimary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 106 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 105 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 104 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 103 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 102 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 101 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 100 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 99 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 93 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 92 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 91 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 90 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 89 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 88 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 87 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 86 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 84 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 82 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 81 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 78 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 77 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 76 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 75 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 73 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 72 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,195,000 Active 69 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $1,195,000 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 67 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 64 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,088 · $674/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,142 · $1,178/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,054/yr (+$504/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $122,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$8,088
• − Insurance: −$11,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,797
• − Management: −$9,797
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable loss: −$18,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,324
• After-tax cash flow: $6,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,805–$20,415 screening

This waterfront property in East Quogue is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has been recently renovated and is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and interior condition.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and lawn maintenance — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups and cleaning — Enhances interior appearance and creates a welcoming atmosphere ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garageDriveway
• Utilities: Septic tankCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: DockShed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeRefrigeratorKitchen islandEat-in kitchenChef's kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomChef's kitchen with kitchen islandEat-in kitchenOpen floor planOpen kitchenPrimary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+635.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $1,325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-29 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Coming Soon $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $665,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-21 Sold (MLS) $665,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-27 Listed $680,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $510,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $510,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $510,000 MLSLI
• 2015-07-22 Pending — MLSLI
• 2015-06-21 Price Changed $525,000 MLSLI
• 2015-02-09 Listed $549,000 MLSLI
• 2015-02-09 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,088 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.