21 Tarpon Rd · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1998 0.26 ac lot $878/sqft · at area comps Est $1211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Waterfront Property in East Quogue A turnkey Hamptons waterfront property that defines coastal living. Set on the canal off Shinnecock Bay it has a dock and bulkhead for easy access to the water. The home has been designed with an open concept layout with a great room that includes the kitchen and the living spaces. There are three bedrooms, two of which look out to the water, and two baths. There is natural light throughout and and easy indoor-outdoor living. Whether you are a boater or simply want to gaze out over the water this property is for you.

Key facts

• Dock and bulkhead
• Natural light
• Great room

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• CANAL OFF SHINNECOCK BAY
• DOCK AND BULKHEAD
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($54k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.12M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.12M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,123,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.76%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,211,394
• List price: $1,195,000
• Delta: -1.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Whiting Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	14mo	$899,000	$692	70
14 Whiting Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (+13%)	2mo	$775,000	$504	67
33 Dolphin Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-2%)	14mo	$1,100,000	$827	67
6 Sanderling Ln	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,462 (+7%)	9mo	$1,375,000	$940	52
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-13%)	16mo	$800,000	$672	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $94,641
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $453,607
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$674 /mo · $8,088/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,294
• Net cashflow: $4,526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,956

Max offer price $1,195,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,203	-5% $4,865	+0% $4,526	+5% $4,188	+10% $3,850
Rent	-10% $3,287	-5% $3,907	+0% $4,526	+5% $5,146	+10% $5,766
Rate	-1.0pp $5,128	-0.5pp $4,830	base $4,526	+0.5pp $4,217	+1.0pp $3,902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	45d	1	0.88mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	19d	1	1.11mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	45d	1	1.12mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	45d	1	1.18mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	12d	1	1.20mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	26d	1	1.26mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	1.26mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.30mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	45d	1	1.34mi
6 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1011	$10,000	$9.89	45d	1	1.37mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $1,195,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,325,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $1,325,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    Waterfront Property in East Quogue A turnkey Hamptons waterfront property that defines coastal living. Set on the canal off Shinnecock Bay it has a dock and bulkhead for easy access to the water. The home has been designed with an open concept layout with a great room that includes the kitchen and the living spaces. There are three bedrooms, two of which look out to the water, and two baths. There is natural light throughout and and easy indoor-outdoor living. Whether you are a boater or simply want to gaze out over the water this property is for you.

17. 2026-03-03
    historical
18. 2025-02-28
    listed $1,295,000 Active
19. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus $1,100,000 Closed
20. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus $1,100,000
21. 2022-11-12
    status Pending
22. 2022-09-29
    listed $1,100,000 Active
23. 2022-09-23
    historical $1,100,000
24. 2019-04-17
    soldstatus $665,000
25. 2019-03-21
    soldstatus $665,000 Closed
26. 2019-02-06
    status Under Contract
27. 2018-09-27
    listed $680,000 New
28. 2015-09-29
    soldstatus $510,000
29. 2015-09-16
    soldstatus $510,000
30. 2015-09-16
    soldstatus $510,000 Closed
31. 2015-07-22
    status Under Contract
32. 2015-06-21
    price $525,000
33. 2015-02-09
    listed $549,000 New
34. 2015-02-09
    listed $525,000
35. 1997-04-10
    soldstatus $162,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,088 · $674/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,142 · $1,178/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,054/yr (+$504/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $188,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$8,088
• − Insurance: −$11,094
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,058
• − Management: −$15,058
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable income: $37,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,934
• After-tax cash flow: $45,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+715.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $1,325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Listed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-29 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-23 Coming Soon $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $665,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-21 Sold (MLS) $665,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-27 Listed $680,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $510,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $510,000 MLSLI
• 2015-09-16 Sold (MLS) $510,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-22 Pending — MLSLI
• 2015-06-21 Price Changed $525,000 MLSLI
• 2015-02-09 Listed $549,000 MLSLI
• 2015-02-09 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,088 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.