1033 Holly Ln

Endwell, NY 13760

$169,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,718 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$606
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $100/mo
• Annual: $1,197/yr
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.52%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#303 in NY, #4,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union-Endicott Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #387 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George F Johnson Elementary School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,410 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 596 students, 44% FRL); Jennie F Snapp Middle School (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #402 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 822 students, 65% FRL); Union-Endicott High School (math 91% / reading 90%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 999 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Endwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.