812 Primrose Ln

Pilot Point, TX 76258

$289,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,993 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$675
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-485/mo
• Annual: $-5,815/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 603 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.