3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,477 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Active
· 234 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,175/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,774
Tax + insurance
−$564
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$457
Net cashflow
$-619/mo
Annual
$-7,430/yr
Cap rate
4.10%
Cash-on-cash
-7.85%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.64%
Cash to close
$94,704
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $338k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (26.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (35.7% below list).
It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $218k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
11 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 3% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $338k implies a 652% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 5.6% in Lakewood Park — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9KJ6Z69DKVAWBK
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29