4403 Goshen Lake Dr S

Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$197,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax + insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,217/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $55,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 448 students, 98% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 582 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,820/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3363% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.