4403 Goshen Lake Dr S · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$197,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1984 0.25 ac lot Est $253k · 22% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this rustic cottage nestled in established Goshen Retreat. This beautiful home features an immersive outdoor fire pit and bar-b-que pit, cedar room, inviting floor plan, and a covered work area. Other great aspects of this home are 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a new privacy fence. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to entertain with an oversized brick patio perfect for hanging out. The excellent location is less than 30 minutes from Plant Vogtle and 25 minutes to Fort Gordon.

Key facts

• Covered storage
• Barbecue pit
• Fire pit

Tags

• OVERSIZED BRICK PATIO
• BARBECUE PIT
• FIRE PIT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVACY-FENCED YARD
• COVERED STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered detached carport with 2 spaces; Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Shared septic / septic tank; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Stone and wood siding frame construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as single-family home
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy fencing around backyard; Landscaped lot; Has view; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Cooktop
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Forced air; Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Fireplace(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 448 students, 98% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 582 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,820/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3363% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,986 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,563
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4409 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,758 (-3%)	4mo	$222,000	$126	90
4417 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-2%)	10mo	$229,000	$128	85
3904 Goshen Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,724 (-5%)	4mo	$239,900	$139	81
4404 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,907 (+5%)	14mo	$205,000	$107	78
3905 N Goshen Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-14%)	10mo	$233,650	$150	63
4405 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,995 (+10%)	24mo	$249,999	$125	63
1573 Oglethorpe Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (+4%)	2mo	$272,500	$144	58
1647 Goshen Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-9%)	15mo	$239,900	$145	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,269
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,639
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30906

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 367
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $653/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $197,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $324	+0% $268	+5% $212	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $196	+0% $268	+5% $340	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $318	base $268	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4210 Valencia Ln Augusta, GA	4.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	15d	1	0.47mi
4376 E Barcelona Way Unit 00 4404 Augusta, GA	4.0	2.5	1696	$1,795	$1.06	24d	1	0.56mi
1233 Paramount Ct Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.5	2560	$2,300	$0.90	15d	1	0.71mi
1015 Country Place Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,695	$1.05	44d	1	1.16mi
1015 Country Place Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $197,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $197,000 Active
17. 2021-03-03
    soldstatus $205,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Welcome home to this rustic cottage nestled in established Goshen Retreat. This beautiful home features an immersive outdoor fire pit and bar-b-que pit, cedar room, inviting floor plan, and a covered work area. Other great aspects of this home are 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a new privacy fence. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to entertain with an oversized brick patio perfect for hanging out. The excellent location is less than 30 minutes from Plant Vogtle and 25 minutes to Fort Gordon.

18. 2021-03-03
    soldstatus $205,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Welcome home to this rustic cottage nestled in established Goshen Retreat. This beautiful home features an immersive outdoor fire pit and bar-b-que pit, cedar room, inviting floor plan, and a covered work area. Other great aspects of this home are 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a new privacy fence. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to entertain with an oversized brick patio perfect for hanging out. The excellent location is less than 30 minutes from Plant Vogtle and 25 minutes to Fort Gordon.

19. 2020-11-02
    listed $215,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Welcome home to this rustic cottage nestled in established Goshen Retreat. This beautiful home features an immersive outdoor fire pit and bar-b-que pit, cedar room, inviting floor plan, and a covered work area. Other great aspects of this home are 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a new privacy fence. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to entertain with an oversized brick patio perfect for hanging out. The excellent location is less than 30 minutes from Plant Vogtle and 25 minutes to Fort Gordon.

20. 2020-11-02
    listed $215,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Welcome home to this rustic cottage nestled in established Goshen Retreat. This beautiful home features an immersive outdoor fire pit and bar-b-que pit, cedar room, inviting floor plan, and a covered work area. Other great aspects of this home are 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a new privacy fence. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to entertain with an oversized brick patio perfect for hanging out. The excellent location is less than 30 minutes from Plant Vogtle and 25 minutes to Fort Gordon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,160/yr (+$97/mo · 177.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$653
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$59
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14
• After-tax cash flow: $3,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 60,423
• Household income: $45,999
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.99%
• Current HPI: 213.5733
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $197,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-03 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-03 Sold (MLS) $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-11-02 Listed $215,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-11-02 Listed $215,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $653 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.