77 Carroll St

Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$460,000B-

9 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,052 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,274/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$1,521
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,318
• Net cashflow: $1,023/mo
• Annual: $12,279/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $341/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $460k).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Poughkeepsie City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 26186% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $460k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?