77 Carroll St · Poughkeepsie, NY 12601

$460,000

9 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,052 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1880 6,098 sqft lot Est $580k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Fully available. .. . Three family home located on a quiet street in the desirable South Side of Poughkeepsie. This home is in good condition and has been nicely maintained throughout the years. Improvements include replacement windows, exterior & interior painting, and new floors in some rooms. Gas boilers, municipal water and sewer. The heating systems and electric meters are fully separated for each unit so the tenant pays their own utilities. Rents are $1,550 + $1,650 + $1,750. Bedroom splits are 3 / 3 / 4. Invest in your future and come take a look at 77 Carroll Street! (Note : Photos are from a older listing and actual condition could be different than what is shown) Price is

Key facts

• New floors
• Municipal water
• Interior painting

Tags

• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• EXTERIOR PAINTING
• INTERIOR PAINTING
• NEW FLOORS
• SEPARATED HEATING SYSTEMS
• MUNICIPAL WATER

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $460,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$579,880) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $341/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $460k).
• Recommended offer: $405k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Poughkeepsie City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 26186% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $460k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.53%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $579,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Hammersley Ave	0.47mi	8/3.0 (-1)	3,360 (+10%)	4mo	$440,000	$131	49
12 Noxon St	0.41mi	8/3.0 (-1)	2,652 (-13%)	10mo	$505,000	$190	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,553
• Equity at exit: $68,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $99,932
• Equity at exit: $39,772

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12601

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$1,329 /mo · $15,951/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,318
• Net cashflow: $1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,979

Max offer price $460,000

Occupancy floor 79%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1	$6,273
Total (3 units)			$6,274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   historical $1,750
3. 2025-12-07
   listed $1,750
4. 2025-11-20
   historical $1,750
5. 2025-10-24
   price $460,000
6. 2025-10-24
   status Active
7. 2025-09-21
   price $1,750
8. 2025-09-20
   listed $1,850
9. 2025-09-19
   historical $1,850
10. 2025-09-17
    listed $1,850
11. 2025-07-28
    price $455,000
12. 2025-07-23
    price $475,000
13. 2025-06-11
    listed $490,000 Active
14. 2024-02-03
    historical
15. 2024-02-03
    historical
16. 2023-08-25
    listed $415,000
17. 2020-09-18
    listed $375,000
18. 2019-02-19
    soldstatus $270,000
19. 2019-02-14
    soldstatus $270,000
20. 2018-07-07
    listed $267,000
21. 1976-12-01
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,951 · $1,329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,951 · $1,329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$15,951
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,023
• − Management: −$6,023
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable income: $5,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $10,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poughkeepsie City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623760
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,159
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6459
• State rank: #559 of 590 in NY

Livability — Poughkeepsie

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #2577

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poughkeepsie, NY
• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• City population: 86,468
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,164
• Household income: $63,652
• Rent vs Own: 56.8% rent · 43.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2891.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.62%
• Current HPI: 293.9789
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Rental Removed $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-07 Listed for Rent $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-20 Rental Removed $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $460,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $1,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-09-20 Listed for Rent $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-09-19 Rental Removed $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $455,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-11 Listed $490,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-25 Listed $415,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-18 Listed $375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2019-02-14 Sold (MLS) $270,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-07 Listed $267,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1976-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,951 · +54.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.