3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,170 sqft ·
Built 1992
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,395/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,563
Tax + insurance
−$314
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$503
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$186/yr
Cap rate
6.36%
Cash-on-cash
0.22%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$83,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($186/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (19.6% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $240k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
Axtell ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #425 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Axtell El (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 397 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 12343% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9M4GDWEPS7CTCW
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29