3020 Brandice Cir

Adamsville, AL 35005

$165,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,197/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $46,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#522 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $166k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?