3020 Brandice Cir · Adamsville, AL 35005

$165,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1978 0.34 ac lot $165/sqft · 129% above area Est $201k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with thoughtful updates throughout! Enjoy an added den created from the enclosed 2-car carport great for extra living space or entertaining. This home features a newly remodeled bathroom, fresh exterior paint, and a brand-new front porch that adds great curb appeal. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of space for gatherings, gardening, or relaxing. A must-see! This isn’t a trailer it’s a house…

Key facts

• Added den
• Large backyard
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• ADDED DEN
• NEWLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND-NEW FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#522 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $166k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,052 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,822
• List price: $165,900
• Delta: -17.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2917 Valleyview Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	7mo	$180,000	$164	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-33,319
• Equity at exit: $24,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-37,530
• Equity at exit: $14,344

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $148,277

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2856 Valleyview Cir Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,050	$1.09	43d	1	0.85mi
4985 Karen Ln Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,095	$1.09	23d	1	1.03mi
1411 Bucks Dr Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,331	$0.96	10d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $165,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    listed $169,900 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home with thoughtful updates throughout! Enjoy an added den created from the enclosed 2-car carport great for extra living space or entertaining. This home features a newly remodeled bathroom, fresh exterior paint, and a brand-new front porch that adds great curb appeal. Step outside to a large backyard with plenty of space for gatherings, gardening, or relaxing. A must-see! This isn’t a trailer it’s a house…

15. 2025-10-28
    price $167,900
16. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus $98,900
17. 2021-06-22
    soldstatus $98,900 Sold
18. 2021-05-18
    historical Contingent
19. 2021-05-15
    listed $92,900 Active
20. 1999-04-06
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 1993-05-25
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable loss: −$4,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $-188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Adamsville

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #522
• US rank: #25480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,982
• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+239.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $167,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records
• 2021-06-22 Sold (MLS) $98,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-18 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-15 Listed $92,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1999-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $550 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.