939 Twin Bends Rd

Waco, TX 76638

$399,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-1,302/mo
• Annual: $-15,623/yr
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.98%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (57.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (54.9% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (57.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Crawford ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #23 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crawford El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 274 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?