939 Twin Bends Rd · Waco, TX 76638

$399,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1959 1.27 ac lot Est $617k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate, fully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath farmhouse with separate office on 1.27 acres in Crawford ISD. Nothing has been left untouched! BRAND NEW Master Suite addition just completed in 2021 adding 392 sqft of living space to include a separate office, spacious master and the most GORGEOUS master bathroom. Bright & inviting floor plan features a spacious open living area and large dining space. Modern farmhouse kitchen has tons of cabinet & counter space, a huge island with butcher block counter, coffee bar buffet with floating shelves for storage, granite counters, apron sink & stainless appliance package. All top of the line finishes throughout!! Separate laundry room with gorgeous herringbone style brick tile. Ultra efficient spray foam insulation in exterior walls & attic. Entire home has been re-wired and re-plumbed. New metal roof, new double-pane windows & new septic system. Fully fenced yard area and garden for growing your own veggies! Garden shed and carport area for covered parking.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Spa-like bath
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• SPA-LIKE BATH
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (57.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (54.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (57.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Crawford ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #23 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crawford El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 274 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,008 (57.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.98%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,004
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
299 Twin Bends Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,544 (+8%)	10mo	$664,000	$261	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-147,570
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-235,253
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76638

• Home prices YoY: -21.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,564/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-1,302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,446

Max offer price $169,008

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2025-07-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-25
   price $399,000
3. 2025-06-02
   price $419,000
4. 2025-04-24
   price $434,000
5. 2025-04-13
   status Active
6. 2025-04-11
   historical
7. 2025-03-26
   listed $449,000 Active
8. 2024-10-18
   historical
9. 2024-03-02
   listed $420,000
10. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus
11. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Immaculate, fully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath farmhouse with separate office on 1.27 acres in Crawford ISD. Nothing has been left untouched! BRAND NEW Master Suite addition just completed in 2021 adding 392 sqft of living space to include a separate office, spacious master and the most GORGEOUS master bathroom. Bright & inviting floor plan features a spacious open living area and large dining space. Modern farmhouse kitchen has tons of cabinet & counter space, a huge island with butcher block counter, coffee bar buffet with floating shelves for storage, granite counters, apron sink & stainless appliance package. All top of the line finishes throughout!! Separate laundry room with gorgeous herringbone style brick tile. Ultra efficient spray foam insulation in exterior walls & attic. Entire home has been re-wired and re-plumbed. New metal roof, new double-pane windows & new septic system. Fully fenced yard area and garden for growing your own veggies! Garden shed and carport area for covered parking.

12. 2021-05-10
    listed $329,900 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Immaculate, fully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath farmhouse with separate office on 1.27 acres in Crawford ISD. Nothing has been left untouched! BRAND NEW Master Suite addition just completed in 2021 adding 392 sqft of living space to include a separate office, spacious master and the most GORGEOUS master bathroom. Bright & inviting floor plan features a spacious open living area and large dining space. Modern farmhouse kitchen has tons of cabinet & counter space, a huge island with butcher block counter, coffee bar buffet with floating shelves for storage, granite counters, apron sink & stainless appliance package. All top of the line finishes throughout!! Separate laundry room with gorgeous herringbone style brick tile. Ultra efficient spray foam insulation in exterior walls & attic. Entire home has been re-wired and re-plumbed. New metal roof, new double-pane windows & new septic system. Fully fenced yard area and garden for growing your own veggies! Garden shed and carport area for covered parking.

13. 2020-10-15
    soldstatus
14. 2020-01-06
    historical
15. 2019-12-03
    listed $225,000
16. 2018-06-05
    soldstatus
17. 2015-09-14
    soldstatus
18. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,564 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,738/yr (+$145/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,564
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$23,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,614
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815600
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,903
• Composite: 58.39/100
• National rank: #1006
• State rank: #23 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 125,319
• Population (ZIP): 3,395

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $419,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $434,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $449,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-02 Listed $420,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-10 Listed $329,900 NTREIS
• 2020-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-01-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-12-03 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,564 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.