8415 Tarocco Ct

Connerton, FL 34637

$344,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,910/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $96,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.