1661 Hopson Ranch Dr

Conroe, TX 77301

$344,090D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,991 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,003/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,804
• Tax + insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-574/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $96,345

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-574/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $337k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $300k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilkinson El (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 944 students, 54% FRL); Peet J H (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,289 students, 58% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 34% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,003/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 1256% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Significant damage to the cabinets and countertops.
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Peeling paint and damaged fixtures.
• Major: Roof — Visible signs of damage and potential leaks.
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling and damaged siding.
• Major: Flooring — Worn and damaged flooring.
• Major: Interior walls — Peeling paint and exposed areas.