406 Kelly Cir

Altamont, NY 12009

$325,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,079/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$365
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-925/mo
• Annual: $-11,098/yr
• Cap rate: 2.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.20%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-925 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (50.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#387 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Guilderland Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #166 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Altamont Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 310 students, 25% FRL); Farnsworth Middle School (math 42% / reading 68%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,151 students, 24% FRL); Guilderland High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,462 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $325k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.