406 Kelly Cir · Altamont, NY 12009

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · Townhouse public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2008 1,306 sqft lot $215/sqft · 10% below area Est $360k · 10% under $365/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Brandle Meadows, a highly sought after 55+ community, located in Altamont, a serene and peaceful setting across from the beautiful Helderberg Escarpment. This second floor gem offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths. The open concept design is perfect for entertaining. The one car detached garage is just outside and has shelving . Take advantage of the swimming pool, attractive clubhouse, fitness center, fire pit, gardens, nature trails, a pond and a gazebo. One dog under 30 pounds is allowed. Cats are allowed. Come and enjoy all that Brandle Meadows has to offer and the best asset, the residents are the BEST!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Pond
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• FIRE PIT
• NATURE TRAILS
• POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-925 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (50.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#387 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Guilderland Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #166 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Altamont Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 310 students, 25% FRL); Farnsworth Middle School (math 42% / reading 68%, grade B-, #212 of 729 statewide, top 29%, 1,151 students, 24% FRL); Guilderland High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,462 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 675 units permitted in Albany County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albany County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $212k; list at $325k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $161,625 (50.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.20%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,588
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -9.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Kelly Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,509 (0%)	8mo	$328,000	$217	91
701 Heather Ln #701	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+10%)	9mo	$345,000	$207	64
805 Heather Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,661 (+10%)	22mo	$345,000	$208	53
705 Heather Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (+10%)	23mo	$355,000	$214	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $118,330
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $395,237
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12009

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$365
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,250

Max offer price $161,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-741	-5% $-833	+0% $-925	+5% $-1,017	+10% $-1,109
Rent	-10% $-1,089	-5% $-1,007	+0% $-925	+5% $-843	+10% $-761
Rate	-1.0pp $-761	-0.5pp $-842	base $-925	+0.5pp $-1,009	+1.0pp $-1,095

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $365 · $4,380/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $325,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    listed $325,000 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Welcome to Brandle Meadows, a highly sought after 55+ community, located in Altamont, a serene and peaceful setting across from the beautiful Helderberg Escarpment. This second floor gem offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths. The open concept design is perfect for entertaining. The one car detached garage is just outside and has shelving . Take advantage of the swimming pool, attractive clubhouse, fitness center, fire pit, gardens, nature trails, a pond and a gazebo. One dog under 30 pounds is allowed. Cats are allowed. Come and enjoy all that Brandle Meadows has to offer and the best asset, the residents are the BEST!

19. 2013-09-24
    soldstatus $212,500
20. 2013-09-19
    soldstatus $212,150 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    First resale in Brandle Meadows! Here is your chance to enjoy maintenance-free living in this sold-out 55+ community. 2BR/2BA unit, great open floor plan and plenty of amenities…clubhouse, pool, fitness center, walking trail, putting green, events, etc. Low utilities and taxes! Superior Condition

21. 2013-07-12
    historical 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    First resale in Brandle Meadows! Here is your chance to enjoy maintenance-free living in this sold-out 55+ community. 2BR/2BA unit, great open floor plan and plenty of amenities…clubhouse, pool, fitness center, walking trail, putting green, events, etc. Low utilities and taxes! Superior Condition

22. 2012-10-19
    listed $214,000 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    First resale in Brandle Meadows! Here is your chance to enjoy maintenance-free living in this sold-out 55+ community. 2BR/2BA unit, great open floor plan and plenty of amenities…clubhouse, pool, fitness center, walking trail, putting green, events, etc. Low utilities and taxes! Superior Condition

23. 2010-06-22
    soldstatus $209,900
24. 2010-05-13
    historical
25. 2009-12-15
    listed $219,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,350 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,921 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$571/yr (+$48/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − HOA: −$4,380
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$17,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilderland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613080
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $75,669
• Composite: 57.24/100
• National rank: #1093
• State rank: #166 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altamont

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #6655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,068
• Population (ZIP): 8,068

Population outlook (Albany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 320,794 people
• By 2030: 327,401 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 338,218 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 348,467 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 381,693 · +19.0%
• By 2100: 393,809 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albany

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.8) · D 62.9% · R 37.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.8 2020: D+31.4 2016: D+24.3 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.85%
• Current HPI: 290.1144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+47.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $325,000 Global MLS
• 2013-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $212,500 Public Records
• 2013-09-19 Sold (MLS) $212,150 Global MLS
• 2013-07-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-10-19 Listed $214,000 Global MLS
• 2010-06-22 Sold (MLS) $209,900 Global MLS
• 2010-05-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2009-12-15 Listed $219,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,350 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.