5041 27th Ave NE

Rio Rancho, NM 87144

$370,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-502/mo
• Annual: $-6,024/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.82%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-502 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (41.0% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1315 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.