319 Cedar Island Trl

Holly Ridge, NC 28445

$255,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,478 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,978/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$18
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-743/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-743/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#78 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coastal Elementary (822 students, 31% FRL); Dixon Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 948 students, 39% FRL); Dixon High (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,149 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 460 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Holly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.