319 Cedar Island Trl · Holly Ridge, NC 28445

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 2014 2,178 sqft lot Est $325k · 22% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Paint, Very Well Maintained, Annual Pest, HVAC, Dryer Vent Cleaning, and Water Heater Flush. Convenient drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse has LVP flooring throughout the downstairs living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) the Laundry Closet is also upstairs, and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened patio and vinyl privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today because at this price it will not last long.

Key facts

• Brand new appliances
• Walk-in closet
• Dual vanity

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with management; Annual association fee approximately $217.37 (about $18.11/month); Community street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; 1 attached garage space; Garage faces front; Additional on-site paved/off-street parking; Assigned parking; Concrete surface; Lighted area; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available; Electric service
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels (2 stories); Entry level is 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a two-story townhouse
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio; Patio; Full backyard vinyl fencing; Property on a cul-de-sac; Paved road frontage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Accessible full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; High ceilings; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-743/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Holly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#78 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coastal Elementary (822 students, 31% FRL); Dixon Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 948 students, 39% FRL); Dixon High (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,149 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 458 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,799 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Winfall Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+10%)	10mo	$357,950	$220	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-44,258
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,439
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28445

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,956/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $244,066

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $82	-5% $10	+0% $-62	+5% $-134	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-140	+0% $-62	+5% $16	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $3	base $-62	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Tile Ln Holly Ridge, NC	3.0	3.0	1518	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $255,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    price $255,000
19. 2026-04-14
    price $257,999
20. 2026-02-12
    listed $259,999 Active
21. 2024-10-04
    soldstatus $259,999 Closed 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    New Paint, Very Well Maintained, Annual Pest, HVAC, Dryer Vent Cleaning, and Water Heater Flush. Convenient drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse has LVP flooring throughout the downstairs living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) the Laundry Closet is also upstairs, and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened patio and vinyl privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today because at this price it will not last long.

22. 2024-09-18
    soldstatus $260,000
23. 2024-08-19
    status Pending 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    New Paint, Very Well Maintained, Annual Pest, HVAC, Dryer Vent Cleaning, and Water Heater Flush. Convenient drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse has LVP flooring throughout the downstairs living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) the Laundry Closet is also upstairs, and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened patio and vinyl privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today because at this price it will not last long.

24. 2024-08-09
    price $259,999 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    New Paint, Very Well Maintained, Annual Pest, HVAC, Dryer Vent Cleaning, and Water Heater Flush. Convenient drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse has LVP flooring throughout the downstairs living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) the Laundry Closet is also upstairs, and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened patio and vinyl privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today because at this price it will not last long.

25. 2024-07-10
    listed $260,000 Active 653-char remark

    Show marketing remark (653 chars)

    New Paint, Very Well Maintained, Annual Pest, HVAC, Dryer Vent Cleaning, and Water Heater Flush. Convenient drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse has LVP flooring throughout the downstairs living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) the Laundry Closet is also upstairs, and two full bathrooms. The primary bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened patio and vinyl privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today because at this price it will not last long.

26. 2016-06-13
    soldstatus $94,900 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Conveniently located a short drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse is a great deal for the money. Laminate flooring is found throughout the downstairs in the living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) a laundry closet, and two full bathrooms. The master bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened in porch and privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today!

27. 2016-04-19
    listed $94,900 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Conveniently located a short drive from the beach, Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the back gate to Camp Lejeune this 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath townhouse is a great deal for the money. Laminate flooring is found throughout the downstairs in the living room, kitchen, dining space, and half bath. Upstairs you''ll find three bedrooms (all with ceiling fans) a laundry closet, and two full bathrooms. The master bedroom boasts a HUGE walk-in closet. The back yard features a screened in porch and privacy fenced yard. Set up an appointment to see this home today!

28. 2014-12-29
    soldstatus $134,900
29. 2014-06-04
    listed $134,900
30. 2013-08-15
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,956 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,956
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,251
• After-tax cash flow: $508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Holly Ridge

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #5549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Ridge, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 10,797
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,797
• Household income: $84,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.92%
• Current HPI: 193.9949
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+136.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $255,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $257,999 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $259,999 Hive MLS
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $259,999 Hive MLS
• 2024-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-19 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $259,999 Hive MLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed $260,000 Hive MLS
• 2016-06-13 Sold (MLS) $94,900 Hive MLS
• 2016-04-19 Listed $94,900 Hive MLS
• 2014-12-29 Sold (MLS) $134,900 Hive MLS
• 2014-06-04 Listed $134,900 Hive MLS
• 2013-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,956 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.