112 Willis Creek Rd

Warner Robins, GA 31088

$212,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,331 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-13/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $59,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-13/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (20.9% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $168k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Hills Elementary School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #289 of 1,228 statewide, top 24%, 545 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins Middle School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #237 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 813 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $212k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.