1612 Columbia Ave

Columbia, TN 38401

$155,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $457/mo
• Annual: $5,485/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $155k implies a 469% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.