1136 Island Dr

Marietta-Alderwood, WA 98262

$469,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax + insurance: −$629
• HOA: −$99
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-1,370/mo
• Annual: $-16,445/yr
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.52%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $131,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (51.0% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (51.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beach Elem (43 students, 67% FRL); Ferndale High School (1,323 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $469k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.1% in Marietta-Alderwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.