1136 Island Dr · Marietta-Alderwood, WA 98262

$469,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot $369/sqft · at area comps Est $582k · 19% under $99/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovingly known as “The Birdhouse, ” this charming two bedroom, one bath home plus office/art bonus room is nestled among beautiful evergreens, offering privacy and peaceful island living. The home features gleaming wood floors, two Trex decks, a new Jotul fireplace, new range, Rinnai on-demand hot water heater, and a wired fast-charge electric vehicle charger. Relax in the nearly new state-of-the-art saltwater hot tub surrounded by nature. The lower partially finished daylight level is heated and plumbed, providing excellent space for a workshop, studio, hobby room, or storage. Homeownership includes access to a swimming lake, playground, saltwater boat launch, beach access, and

Key facts

• New jotul fireplace
• Two trex decks
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• TWO TREX DECKS
• NEW JOTUL FIREPLACE
• ACCESS TO SWIMMING LAKE
• SALTWATER BOAT LAUNCH
• BEACH ACCESS
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Lummi Island Scenic Estates; Zoned RF; Lot approx. 0.28 acre
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or conventional
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $99 monthly fee; Community features: boat launch, CCRs, clubhouse, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric and propane energy sources; Community water; Septic sewer system; Power by Puget Sound Energy
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story with basement; Main entry level; Has a view; Located in a cul-de-sac on a paved road
• Construction: Log and wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built on lot
• Exterior features: Log and wood exterior; Deck; Hot tub / spa; Outbuildings; Garden space; Wooded setting; Community waterfront / private beach access; Level, sloped and terraced topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove / Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Flooring: Softwood; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; One bathtub and one shower
• Heating & cooling: Stove / free-standing heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: French doors; Daylight, partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (51.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (51.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.1% in Marietta-Alderwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ferndale School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #138 of 291 in WA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beach Elem (43 students, 67% FRL); Ferndale High School (1,323 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $469k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $226,906 (51.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.52%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $581,576
• List price: $469,000
• Delta: -19.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1185 Bay St	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,328 (+5%)	13mo	$547,000	$412	73
2965 Dogwood Ter	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,434 (+13%)	7mo	$499,000	$348	62
1178 Scenic Ave	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (+6%)	12mo	$425,000	$315	59
3040 Mt Vista Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,382 (+9%)	7mo	$640,000	$463	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $168,147
• Equity at exit: $422,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $563,810
• Equity at exit: $911,164

Cash invested: $131,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98262

• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 17.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,202/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$99
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-1,370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,035

Max offer price $226,906

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,250
• Closing costs: $14,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2958 Dogwood Ter Lummi Island, WA	2.0	1.0	1325	$2,300	$1.74	13d	1	0.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $99 · $1,188/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $469,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $469,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $469,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $469,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $469,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $469,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $469,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $469,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $469,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $469,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $469,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $469,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $469,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $469,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $469,000 Active
17. 2015-12-30
    soldstatus $245,000 Sold
18. 2015-12-30
    soldstatus $245,000
19. 2015-12-07
    status Pending
20. 2015-11-15
    historical
21. 2015-11-13
    listed $249,000
22. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $278,000 Sold
23. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus $278,000
24. 2008-07-01
    historical
25. 2008-06-09
    listed $289,900
26. 2003-07-10
    soldstatus $151,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,202 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,202 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,271
• − Property taxes: −$5,202
• − Insurance: −$2,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − HOA: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$13,644
• Taxable loss: −$25,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,112
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferndale School District
• NCES district ID: 5302850
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,413
• Composite: 46.06/100
• National rank: #5494
• State rank: #138 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marietta-Alderwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,020

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovak 5% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 114.22%
• Current HPI: 434.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+210.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $469,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-30 Sold (MLS) $245,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-15 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-13 Listed $249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $278,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-25 Sold (MLS) $278,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-09 Listed $289,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,202 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.