418 E Elm St

Gillespie, IL 62033

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,081 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $435/mo
• Annual: $5,225/yr
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.40%
• DSCR: 2.66
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#261 in IL, #4,848 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Gillespie CUSD 7 (town): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #485 of 620 in IL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and in poor condition
• Major: exterior landscaping — overgrown and in need of maintenance
• Major: interior walls — peeling paint and outdated wallpaper
• Major: electrical panel — worn and outdated