418 E Elm St · Gillespie, IL 62033

$49,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,081 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 1948 Fair condition 7,544 sqft lot $46/sqft · 45% below area Est $90k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNLOCK THIS HOME'S POTENTIAL! This 2-bedroom home in Gillespie offers a great chance to build equity with several key updates already started. Recent improvements include updated electrical work and new PEX water lines, giving you a solid foundation to continue bringing this property to life. Step inside and you’re welcomed by a spacious living room, with a well-sized bedroom just off the main area. Both bedrooms offer comfortable space and flexibility. The kitchen features a functional layout with ample storage, making it practical for everyday use. A nearby closet presents an excellent opportunity to be converted into a laundry area and potential half bath. The basement provides convenient access to the home’s mechanical systems along with additional space for storage. Step outside and enjoy one of this property’s true highlights—a large, shaded backyard offering the perfect setting for relaxing, entertaining, or future expansion. The home also features convenient front yard parking with turnaround space, a rare and practical bonus. A covered back porch provides a comfortable spot to unwind, while the outdoor water spigot and electrical outlet add everyday functionality and versatility to the space. Whether you're searching for your next investment, a flip, or a place to truly make your own, this property offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

Key facts

• 7,544 sq ft lot
• Built 1948
• Listed 61 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#261 in IL, #4,848 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute D-.
• Gillespie CUSD 7 (town): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #485 of 620 in IL (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.40%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,303
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -44.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 E Elm St	0.02mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	9mo	$70,000	$61	81
811 Adams St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	1mo	$115,000	$115	68
422 Henry St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+2%)	22mo	$129,000	$117	65
503 Henry St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	5mo	$160,000	$133	62
617 Mor St	0.30mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+2%)	18mo	$84,500	$77	61
301 Laura St	0.46mi	2/1.0	944 (-13%)	7mo	$114,900	$122	50
713 Western Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,097 (+2%)	19mo	$109,900	$100	48
414 W Walnut	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,060 (-2%)	20mo	$27,500	$26	47
300 W Maple St	0.59mi	2/1.5	1,032 (-4%)	21mo	$124,800	$121	47
708 Springfield Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	15mo	$159,000	$133	47
400 E Broadway	0.58mi	2/1.0	988 (-9%)	13mo	$124,900	$126	46
411 W Chestnut St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+1%)	23mo	$19,900	$18	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $19,647
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $52,819
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62033

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $406

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $49,900 Active 1549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1549 chars)

    UNLOCK THIS HOME'S POTENTIAL! This 2-bedroom home in Gillespie offers a great chance to build equity with several key updates already started. Recent improvements include updated electrical work and new PEX water lines, giving you a solid foundation to continue bringing this property to life. Step inside and you’re welcomed by a spacious living room, with a well-sized bedroom just off the main area. Both bedrooms offer comfortable space and flexibility. The kitchen features a functional layout with ample storage, making it practical for everyday use. A nearby closet presents an excellent opportunity to be converted into a laundry area and potential half bath. The basement provides convenient access to the home’s mechanical systems along with additional space for storage. Step outside and enjoy one of this property’s true highlights—a large, shaded backyard offering the perfect setting for relaxing, entertaining, or future expansion. The home also features convenient front yard parking with turnaround space, a rare and practical bonus. A covered back porch provides a comfortable spot to unwind, while the outdoor water spigot and electrical outlet add everyday functionality and versatility to the space. Whether you're searching for your next investment, a flip, or a place to truly make your own, this property offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

17. 2026-04-17
    historical $49,900 1549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1549 chars)

    UNLOCK THIS HOME'S POTENTIAL! This 2-bedroom home in Gillespie offers a great chance to build equity with several key updates already started. Recent improvements include updated electrical work and new PEX water lines, giving you a solid foundation to continue bringing this property to life. Step inside and you’re welcomed by a spacious living room, with a well-sized bedroom just off the main area. Both bedrooms offer comfortable space and flexibility. The kitchen features a functional layout with ample storage, making it practical for everyday use. A nearby closet presents an excellent opportunity to be converted into a laundry area and potential half bath. The basement provides convenient access to the home’s mechanical systems along with additional space for storage. Step outside and enjoy one of this property’s true highlights—a large, shaded backyard offering the perfect setting for relaxing, entertaining, or future expansion. The home also features convenient front yard parking with turnaround space, a rare and practical bonus. A covered back porch provides a comfortable spot to unwind, while the outdoor water spigot and electrical outlet add everyday functionality and versatility to the space. Whether you're searching for your next investment, a flip, or a place to truly make your own, this property offers the perfect opportunity to build equity and bring your vision to life. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your showing today and see the potential for yourself!

18. 2025-10-31
    price $47,900
19. 2025-10-07
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $462 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$335/yr (+$28/mo · 72.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$919
• − Management: −$919
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,693
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $4,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom home in Gillespie requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, exterior landscaping, interior walls, and electrical panel.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and in poor condition
• Major exterior landscaping — overgrown and in need of maintenance
• Major interior walls — peeling paint and outdated wallpaper
• Major electrical panel — worn and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase the home's appeal
• Resale bathroom renovation — updating the bathroom would improve the home's overall appeal
• Both exterior landscaping — improving the landscaping would enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value
• Both interior paint — updating the interior paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value
• Both electrical panel upgrade — upgrading the electrical panel would improve the home's functionality and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior landscaping · overgrown and in need of maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · peeling paint and outdated wallpaper	Major	$15,000–50,000
electrical panel · worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would significantly increase the home's appeal ↑
• Resale bathroom renovation — updating the bathroom would improve the home's overall appeal ↑
• Both exterior landscaping — improving the landscaping would enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both interior paint — updating the interior paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑
• Both electrical panel upgrade — upgrading the electrical panel would improve the home's functionality and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gillespie CUSD 7
• NCES district ID: 1716680
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,399
• Composite: 14.59/100
• National rank: #9413
• State rank: #485 of 620 in IL

Livability — Gillespie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #4848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gillespie, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,398

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.59%
• Current HPI: 136.9671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $47,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $49,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-32.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $462 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.