10 Elm Ave

Bay Shore, NY 11706

$159,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$1,050
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $611/mo
• Annual: $7,331/yr
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.47%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#266 in NY, #4,209 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Bay Shore Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #295 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brook Avenue Elementary School (400 students, 54% FRL); Bay Shore Middle School (math 28% / reading 53%, grade F, #409 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 1,298 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay Shore Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.0% in Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.