10 Elm Ave · Bay Shore, NY 11706

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1978 $1050/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 10 Elm Avenue in Bay Shore! This well-maintained mobile home offers 3 bedroom and one bath comfortable and affordable living opportunity in a convenient location. Featuring a functional layout with bright living spaces, ample storage, and low-maintenance living, this home is ideal for those seeking simplicity and value. Enjoy easy access to local shopping, dining, major roadways, and public transportation. A great alternative to renting, don’t miss this opportunity to own in Bay Shore!

Key facts

• Bright living spaces
• Functional layout
• Ample storage

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• BRIGHT LIVING SPACES
• AMPLE STORAGE
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.0% in Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#266 in NY, #4,209 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Bay Shore Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #295 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brook Avenue Elementary School (400 students, 54% FRL); Bay Shore Middle School (math 28% / reading 53%, grade F, #409 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 1,298 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay Shore Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.47%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,642
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $54,160
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11706

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$1,050
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,720

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Garfield St Bay Shore, NY	3.0	2.0	1355	$3,999	$2.95	43d	1	0.78mi
1455 E Forks Rd Bay Shore, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$3,300	$2.54	1d	1	0.79mi
7 Reil Pl Unit 1st floor Bay Shore, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,295	$3.00	13d	1	0.80mi
130 5th Ave Bay Shore, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,195	$2.66	1d	1	0.83mi
54 2nd Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	43d	1	0.86mi
57 Park Ave Unit 203 Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	1028	$3,400	$3.31	10d	1	0.97mi
143 4th Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$5,258	$4.82	1d	24	0.99mi
35 Penataquit Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	637	$3,120	$4.89	1d	14	1.12mi
179 Orinoco Dr Unit 1 Brightwaters, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$2,750	$3.93	43d	1	1.25mi
29 S Clinton Ave Unit 1 Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$2,975	$3.97	24d	1	1.35mi
405 E Main St Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,950	$3.93	43d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,050 · $12,600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-22
   listed $159,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,354
• − Management: −$3,354
• − HOA: −$12,600
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $5,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay Shore Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3604080
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $76,263
• Composite: 47.79/100
• National rank: #2230
• State rank: #295 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bay Shore

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #4209

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Shore, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 68,976
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,976
• Household income: $119,603
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 33% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.52%
• Current HPI: 311.4019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid