116 Daniels Rd

Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18428

$499,900D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 5,184 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 558 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,290/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$735
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $-757/mo
• Annual: $-9,090/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-757 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $329k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $392k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.