116 Daniels Rd · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18428

$499,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 5,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 558 Days on market

Built 1977 24 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Total privacy! Oversized Ranch on spectacular 23+ acre parcel offering total seclusion. Home features 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, bright spacious kitchen with breakfast area, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, finished basement, detached garage. Absolutely one of a kind opportunity. , Beds Description: 2+BedL, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Formal DN Room

Key facts

• Charming stream
• Screened-in porch
• Multi-level decks

Tags

• TRANQUIL POND
• CHARMING STREAM
• MULTI-LEVEL DECKS
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• UNIQUE
• NON-COMMUNITY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-757 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 558 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $392k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $329,026 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 558 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $224,004
• Equity at exit: $450,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $697,573
• Equity at exit: $971,196

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,324/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $-757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,249

Max offer price $366,089

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   price $499,900
3. 2025-08-03
   status Active
4. 2025-01-09
   status Active
5. 2024-06-21
   listed $599,999 Active
6. 2017-08-09
   soldstatus $392,500
7. 2014-09-15
   soldstatus $262,000
8. 2014-09-12
   soldstatus $262,000 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Total privacy! Oversized Ranch on spectacular 23+ acre parcel offering total seclusion. Home features 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, bright spacious kitchen with breakfast area, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, finished basement, detached garage. Absolutely one of a kind opportunity. , Beds Description: 2+BedL, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Formal DN Room

9. 2014-03-18
   listed $279,900 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Total privacy! Oversized Ranch on spectacular 23+ acre parcel offering total seclusion. Home features 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, bright spacious kitchen with breakfast area, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, finished basement, detached garage. Absolutely one of a kind opportunity. , Beds Description: 2+BedL, Beds Description: 2+Bed1st, Baths: 1 Bath Level L, Baths: 2 Bath Lev 1, Eating Area: Formal DN Room

10. 2007-07-12
    soldstatus $635,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,324 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,111 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$6,324
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,159
• − Management: −$3,159
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$18,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,368
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-21.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $499,900 PWMLS
• 2025-08-03 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-01-09 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $599,999 PWMLS
• 2017-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $392,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $262,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-12 Sold (MLS) $262,000 PWMLS
• 2014-03-18 Listed $279,900 PWMLS
• 2007-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $635,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,324 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.