409 Southview Dr

Willard, MO 65781

$225,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$243
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-152/mo
• Annual: $-1,830/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard North Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 332 students, 42% FRL); Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.