409 Southview Dr · Willard, MO 65781

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2010 0.28 ac lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $247k · 9% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 409 Southview Dr. in Willard, MO! Have you been keeping your eyes peeled for a cozy, affordable home in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood? Well here you go, my friend! This move-in ready gem is tucked away on a low-traffic, dead-end street with immediate neighbors on only one side (40 acres of private farm land on the other and plenty of space behind). Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open concept living/kitchen/dining, and located in a small but growing town in the heart of Southwest Missouri. Not to mention, there are UPDATES GALORE! New HVAC, New Flooring, New Stainless Steel Appliances, New Backyard Shed, New Vapor Barrier. .. .and more! Neighborhood park area with basketball goals, open fields and a pavilion for gatherings, and to top it all off, this home is a 5-minute or less drive to all of the different schools in Willard (Willard High is among the Top ranked schools in the entire Springfield Metro area). Whether you want to spend your free time working out in the shed, sitting in the backyard watching the cows, or soaking in the coziness of your updated indoor space, you can't go wrong with 409 Southview. Please enjoy your visit!

Key facts

• Basketball goals
• Private farm land
• Open fields

Tags

• LOW TRAFFIC DEAD END STREET
• PRIVATE FARM LAND
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK AREA
• BASKETBALL GOALS
• OPEN FIELDS
• PAVILION FOR GATHERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard North Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 332 students, 42% FRL); Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,287
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -9.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Emily Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,159 (0%)	8mo	$230,000	$198	88
409 Southview Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$180	86
119 W New Melville Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,031 (-11%)	13mo	$189,900	$184	55
105 W Jacaranda Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,246 (+8%)	6mo	$219,900	$176	50
502 S Gauge St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (+5%)	11mo	$225,000	$184	50
603 S Miller Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,172 (+1%)	19mo	$225,000	$192	49
622 Mark St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,228 (+6%)	17mo	$194,900	$159	48
608 S Barwick Pl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+12%)	13mo	$214,900	$166	46
613 S Miller Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+9%)	10mo	$229,900	$182	43
639 Pershing St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	15mo	$189,000	$182	42
106 W New Melville Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,317 (+14%)	23mo	$234,800	$178	37
301 E New Melville Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-13%)	17mo	$160,000	$159	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-46,206
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-52,885
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65781

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,791/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $198,066

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-89	+0% $-152	+5% $-216	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-218	+0% $-152	+5% $-87	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-95	base $-152	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
803 Lambert Cir Willard, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	15d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Welcome to 409 Southview Dr. in Willard, MO! Have you been keeping your eyes peeled for a cozy, affordable home in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood? Well here you go, my friend! This move-in ready gem is tucked away on a low-traffic, dead-end street with immediate neighbors on only one side (40 acres of private farm land on the other and plenty of space behind). Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open concept living/kitchen/dining, and located in a small but growing town in the heart of Southwest Missouri. Not to mention, there are UPDATES GALORE! New HVAC, New Flooring, New Stainless Steel Appliances, New Backyard Shed, New Vapor Barrier. .. .and more! Neighborhood park area with basketball goals, open fields and a pavilion for gatherings, and to top it all off, this home is a 5-minute or less drive to all of the different schools in Willard (Willard High is among the Top ranked schools in the entire Springfield Metro area). Whether you want to spend your free time working out in the shed, sitting in the backyard watching the cows, or soaking in the coziness of your updated indoor space, you can't go wrong with 409 Southview. Please enjoy your visit!

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $225,000 Active 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Welcome to 409 Southview Dr. in Willard, MO! Have you been keeping your eyes peeled for a cozy, affordable home in a quiet and peaceful neighborhood? Well here you go, my friend! This move-in ready gem is tucked away on a low-traffic, dead-end street with immediate neighbors on only one side (40 acres of private farm land on the other and plenty of space behind). Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, open concept living/kitchen/dining, and located in a small but growing town in the heart of Southwest Missouri. Not to mention, there are UPDATES GALORE! New HVAC, New Flooring, New Stainless Steel Appliances, New Backyard Shed, New Vapor Barrier. .. .and more! Neighborhood park area with basketball goals, open fields and a pavilion for gatherings, and to top it all off, this home is a 5-minute or less drive to all of the different schools in Willard (Willard High is among the Top ranked schools in the entire Springfield Metro area). Whether you want to spend your free time working out in the shed, sitting in the backyard watching the cows, or soaking in the coziness of your updated indoor space, you can't go wrong with 409 Southview. Please enjoy your visit!

3. 2024-05-16
   soldstatus
4. 2024-05-15
   soldstatus Closed 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Enjoy living in Augusta Heights in Willard owning this great home! This property is situated so that you will live at the end of a street for peace and quiet. Watch the cows to the West that graze in the farm land as your neighbor. Enjoy the high ceilings in the family room that greet you and offer an open concept to the living, dining and kitchen area. A separate, large pantry for your canned goods and large kitchen appliances, newer appliances in the kitchen as well. The hall bath has been updated with a trendy vanity and the 3 bedrooms have great space and closet storage. This home has fresh paint, fresh landscaping around the hydrangeas in the front yard and has an HOA that includes your trash, basketball court and pavilion for picnics as well as a huge green space for whatever sport you love! Come to Willard and see this great house!

5. 2024-04-07
   status Pending 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Enjoy living in Augusta Heights in Willard owning this great home! This property is situated so that you will live at the end of a street for peace and quiet. Watch the cows to the West that graze in the farm land as your neighbor. Enjoy the high ceilings in the family room that greet you and offer an open concept to the living, dining and kitchen area. A separate, large pantry for your canned goods and large kitchen appliances, newer appliances in the kitchen as well. The hall bath has been updated with a trendy vanity and the 3 bedrooms have great space and closet storage. This home has fresh paint, fresh landscaping around the hydrangeas in the front yard and has an HOA that includes your trash, basketball court and pavilion for picnics as well as a huge green space for whatever sport you love! Come to Willard and see this great house!

6. 2024-04-05
   listed $205,000 Active 850-char remark

   Show marketing remark (850 chars)

   Enjoy living in Augusta Heights in Willard owning this great home! This property is situated so that you will live at the end of a street for peace and quiet. Watch the cows to the West that graze in the farm land as your neighbor. Enjoy the high ceilings in the family room that greet you and offer an open concept to the living, dining and kitchen area. A separate, large pantry for your canned goods and large kitchen appliances, newer appliances in the kitchen as well. The hall bath has been updated with a trendy vanity and the 3 bedrooms have great space and closet storage. This home has fresh paint, fresh landscaping around the hydrangeas in the front yard and has an HOA that includes your trash, basketball court and pavilion for picnics as well as a huge green space for whatever sport you love! Come to Willard and see this great house!

7. 2015-05-15
   soldstatus
8. 2014-11-11
   listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,791 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,791
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willard

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willard, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,160

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.06%
• Current HPI: 214.9498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Listed $225,000 SOMO
• 2024-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2024-04-07 Pending — SOMO
• 2024-04-05 Listed $205,000 SOMO
• 2015-05-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-11-11 Listed $99,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,791 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.