12401 Cedar Trl

Saluda, VA 23061

$244,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 223 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-444/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $68,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Petsworth Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 382 students, 65% FRL); Peasley Middle (math 53% / reading 74%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 620 students, 37% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.