12401 Cedar Trl · Saluda, VA 23061

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily · 223 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.54 ac lot $266/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! GREAT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

Key facts

• Fishing/viewing pier
• New construction
• Beach area

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• BEACH AREA
• FISHING/VIEWING PIER
• BOAT RAMP
• COVERED PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-444/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Gloucester County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #37 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Petsworth Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 382 students, 65% FRL); Peasley Middle (math 53% / reading 74%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 620 students, 37% FRL); Gloucester High (math 58% / reading 86%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,531 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,679
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: 0.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12405 Cedar Trl	0.01mi	3/2.0	920 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$255	99
6423 Holly Trail Trl	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (+11%)	12mo	$429,000	$421	62
12635 Dogwood Trl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (+8%)	15mo	$231,000	$232	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,967
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,278
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23061

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $239,547

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $48	+0% $-37	+5% $-122	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-123	+0% $-37	+5% $49	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $25	base $-37	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $244,900 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $244,900 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $244,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 203 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 202 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 201 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $244,900 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

20. 2026-05-04
    price $244,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

21. 2026-04-07
    price $249,900 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

22. 2026-04-07
    price $249,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

23. 2026-03-04
    price $254,900 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

24. 2026-03-04
    price $254,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

25. 2025-11-11
    listed $264,900 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

26. 2025-11-11
    listed $264,900 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS DREAM! BEACH ACCESS, FISHING PIER, AND BOAT RAMP LOCATED ON THE PIANKATANK RIVER. THIS NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME HAS 3 BEDROOMS, 2 FULL BATHS, LOW MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR, AND BEAUTIFUL WATERPROOF LVP FLOORING. EXPERIENCE THE SERENE LUXURIES OF COASTAL LIVING WITHOUT THE PRICE TAG! PERFECT FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR A COTTAGE GETAWAY! AN UNPARRALLELED OPPORTUNITY TO ENJOY THE PERFECT VACATION LIFESTYLE. $5,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a serene coastal lifestyle with modern amenities and low-maintenance features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen functionality and resale value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen functionality and resale value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloucester County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101620
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,815
• Composite: 56.19/100
• National rank: #1177
• State rank: #37 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saluda

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #26208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,219

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,437 people
• By 2030: 37,286 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 36,224 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 34,171 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 30,472 · -18.6%
• By 2100: 25,832 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.4) · D 30.4% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -38.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.4 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.96%
• Current HPI: 175.0236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $244,900 REINMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $244,900 CBRAR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $249,900 REINMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $249,900 CBRAR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $254,900 REINMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $254,900 CBRAR
• 2025-11-11 Listed $264,900 CBRAR
• 2025-11-11 Listed $264,900 REINMLS