2301 Pentland Dr

Grayson Valley, AL 35235

$177,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 780 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,359/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,076/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $49,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#139 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chalkville Elementary School (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 854 students, 79% FRL); Claychalkville Middle School (math 2% / reading 26%, grade F, #209 of 257 statewide, top 82%, 1,032 students, 64% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.