2301 Pentland Dr · Grayson Valley, AL 35235

$177,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1984 $228/sqft · 67% above area Est $215k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Front porch
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• CROWN MOLDING
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• WOOD DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#139 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chalkville Elementary School (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #560 of 627 statewide, top 90%, 854 students, 79% FRL); Claychalkville Middle School (math 2% / reading 26%, grade F, #209 of 257 statewide, top 82%, 1,032 students, 64% FRL); Claychalkville High School (math 6% / reading 9%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 1,361 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $128k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,908 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,322
• List price: $177,900
• Delta: -17.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-31,214
• Equity at exit: $26,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,198
• Equity at exit: $15,382

Cash invested: $49,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35235

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,876/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $162,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-39	+0% $-90	+5% $-140	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-143	+0% $-90	+5% $-36	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-44	base $-90	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,475
• Closing costs: $5,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2345 Grayson Valley Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,150	$1.09	4d	1	0.19mi
5528 Saint James St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1072	$1,150	$1.07	45d	1	0.35mi
2463 Hampstead Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,127	$1.02	4d	1	0.36mi
5531 Saint James St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1072	$950	$0.89	45d	1	0.38mi
2524 Daly Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,565	$1.45	45d	1	0.65mi
1814 Valley Run Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	45d	1	1.16mi
5764 Desoto Dr Pinson, AL	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,225	$1.11	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $177,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $177,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,999 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,999 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,999 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,999 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,999 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $184,999 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,950 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,950 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $189,950 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

16. 2026-04-27
    status Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

17. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

18. 2026-04-06
    price $199,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

19. 2026-03-26
    price $205,000 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

20. 2026-03-10
    listed $209,900 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Spacious 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Enjoy a welcoming front porch, a cozy fireplace in the living room, and elegant crown molding throughout the main living areas. The home offers a dedicated dining area, a 1-car garage, and a fenced backyard with a wood deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. One or more photos have been virtually staged.

21. 2022-05-20
    price $1,295
22. 2022-05-16
    price $1,295
23. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $127,500
24. 2021-11-19
    soldstatus $127,500 Sold 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    Coming soon!

25. 2021-10-07
    historical 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    Coming soon!

26. 2021-10-02
    historical $165,000 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    Coming soon!

27. 2001-09-27
    soldstatus $92,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,965
• − Property taxes: −$1,876
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$5,175
• Taxable loss: −$4,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $-67/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grayson Valley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #13418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grayson Valley, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 20,526
• Household income: $63,295
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 30% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.62%
• Current HPI: 204.6532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+105.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $189,950 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $205,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $209,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $1,295 RENT.
• 2022-05-16 Price Changed $1,295 RENT.
• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) $127,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-07 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-10-02 Coming Soon $165,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2001-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $92,450 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,876 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.