189 Wallace

Tumbling Shoals, AR 72581

$185,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,105/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (37.8% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#347 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Tumbling Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.