189 Wallace · Tumbling Shoals, AR 72581

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2002 1.39 ac lot $132/sqft · 14% above area Est $236k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just minutes from the boat ramp, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience for lake living. Enjoy a spacious open kitchen that flows into the living areas, plus a bonus room that can be used as a game room, office, or second living space. The home also features a separate laundry room for added functionality. Outside, you’ll love the cleared front yard, ideal for gatherings or extra parking, while the wooded backyard provides privacy and room to explore. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home puts you close to all the outdoor fun Greers Ferry Lake has to offer.

Key facts

• Wooded backyard
• Cleared front yard
• Bonus room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• CLEARED FRONT YARD
• WOODED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Tumbling Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#347 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,083 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,786
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -21.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
199 Wallace Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	4mo	$110,000	$88	74
390 Heigle Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-9%)	10mo	$45,000	$35	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $89,482
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $272,093
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72581

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $154,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-71	-5% $-123	+0% $-175	+5% $-228	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-221	+0% $-175	+5% $-130	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-128	base $-175	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    soldstatus $110,000
18. 2026-02-03
    listed $185,000 New Listing 679-char remark

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    Just minutes from the boat ramp, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience for lake living. Enjoy a spacious open kitchen that flows into the living areas, plus a bonus room that can be used as a game room, office, or second living space. The home also features a separate laundry room for added functionality. Outside, you’ll love the cleared front yard, ideal for gatherings or extra parking, while the wooded backyard provides privacy and room to explore. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment property, this home puts you close to all the outdoor fun Greers Ferry Lake has to offer.

19. 2026-01-16
    historical
20. 2025-10-02
    listed $185,000 New Listing
21. 1996-06-20
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 164.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$5,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507560
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $39,577
• Composite: 41.39/100
• National rank: #3478
• State rank: #19 of 238 in AR

Livability — Tumbling Shoals

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #21842

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumbling Shoals, AR
• City population: 821
• Population (ZIP): 821

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Native American 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.00%
• Current HPI: 242.3802
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1057.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-03 Listed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $185,000 CARMLS
• 1996-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $448 · -25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.