3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,298 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,937/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$310
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$407
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$177/yr
Cap rate
6.37%
Cash-on-cash
0.27%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$64,386
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (15.8% below list).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $194k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
11 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $26k; list at $230k implies a 784% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9RGXDG94YX0GQX
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29