4518 Owens Family Rd

La Grange, NC 28551

$196,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,181/yr
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $54,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#278 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Grange Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 99% FRL); E B Frink Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 540 students, 99% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $196k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.