4518 Owens Family Rd · La Grange, NC 28551

$196,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2002 0.37 ac lot Est $169k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home with vinyl siding . 3 bedrooms and 2 baths . Living room with a fireplace and island in the kitchen. Located on dead end street. Nice and neat small subdivision . Does need some repairs .

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete off-street parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level), entry level 1; Facing details not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Storm door(s); No patio or porch; No fencing; Has a view; Road frontage on city street and state road; Lot approximately 0.37 acres (119 x 140 x 119 x 140)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedrooms included)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.3% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#278 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Grange Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 99% FRL); E B Frink Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 540 students, 99% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $196k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,581 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,344
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5023 Gladys Owens St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$112	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,666
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,763
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28551

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $477/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $196,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $459	-5% $404	+0% $348	+5% $293	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $199	-5% $274	+0% $348	+5% $423	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $398	base $348	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $196,000 Active
3. 2023-01-24
   soldstatus $48,201 Closed 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Manufactured home with vinyl siding . 3 bedrooms and 2 baths . Living room with a fireplace and island in the kitchen. Located on dead end street. Nice and neat small subdivision . Does need some repairs .

4. 2022-12-13
   status Pending 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Manufactured home with vinyl siding . 3 bedrooms and 2 baths . Living room with a fireplace and island in the kitchen. Located on dead end street. Nice and neat small subdivision . Does need some repairs .

5. 2022-12-03
   listed $36,900 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Manufactured home with vinyl siding . 3 bedrooms and 2 baths . Living room with a fireplace and island in the kitchen. Located on dead end street. Nice and neat small subdivision . Does need some repairs .

6. 2013-09-17
   historical
7. 2011-08-05
   listed $83,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $477 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 237.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$477
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable income: $972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$233
• After-tax cash flow: $3,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — La Grange

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #12047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Grange, NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,264

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 1% Slovene 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.90%
• Current HPI: 216.483
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+133.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $196,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-01-24 Sold (MLS) $48,201 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-13 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-12-03 Listed $36,900 Hive MLS
• 2013-09-17 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2011-08-05 Listed $83,800 Hive MLS

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $477 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.