141 Fabion St

Kyle, TX 78640

$235,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,789 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 435 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$800
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-543/mo
• Annual: $-6,513/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.90%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-543 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 435 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Susie Fuentes El (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 650 students, 60% FRL); Armando Chapa Middle (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 668 students, 65% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 43% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 435 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?