409 Orwood Pl

Lyncourt, NY 13208

$179,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$519
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,750/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (13.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $139k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in NY, #1,075 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-.
• Lyncourt Union Free School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #719 of 755 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $180k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.