409 Orwood Pl · Lyncourt, NY 13208

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1941 6,250 sqft lot Est $188k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 409 Orwood Place in Lyncourt! This cozy, well-maintained 2-bedroom cape cod offers hardwood floors, a formal dining room with French doors, and two full bathrooms. Major mechanical updates include a furnace (2019), hot water heater (2021), and chimney rebuild (2023), providing added value and peace of mind. Enjoy outdoor living in the spacious backyard featuring a deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways. Don't miss this opportunity to own a move-in-ready home in a desirable neighborhood! Multiple Offers Received: Offer deadline is set for Wednesday June 17th at 7:30pm.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Spacious backyard
• French doors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• FRENCH DOORS
• MAJOR MECHANICAL UPDATES
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction; Aluminum siding; Rectangular residential lot with 50 x 125 dimensions; City street frontage
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in NY, #1,075 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-.
• Lyncourt Union Free School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #719 of 755 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $180k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,413 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
497 Pleasantview Ave	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	1mo	$189,900	$180	81
606 Roxford Rd S	0.25mi	2/1.5	1,162 (+8%)	1mo	$210,000	$181	73
222 Darlington Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	5mo	$168,500	$156	67
164 Berkshire Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,073 (-1%)	2mo	$116,900	$109	63
307 Malverne Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-2%)	4mo	$170,000	$161	57
352 Roxford Rd N	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,164 (+8%)	0mo	$209,500	$180	53
232 Malverne Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,142 (+6%)	1mo	$224,900	$197	53
409 Swansea Ave	0.67mi	2/1.5	1,009 (-7%)	4mo	$175,000	$173	52
143 Huntley St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,218 (+13%)	2mo	$97,000	$80	50
1108 Wadsworth St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,168 (+8%)	2mo	$165,000	$141	46
309 Swansea Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	2mo	$209,000	$174	38
303 Snyder Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,225 (+13%)	4mo	$220,000	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $83,540
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $257,805
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13208

• Home prices YoY: 8.4%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,333/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $139,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-178	+0% $-229	+5% $-280	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-291	+0% $-229	+5% $-168	+10% $-106
Rate	-1.0pp $-139	-0.5pp $-183	base $-229	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Ross Park Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.80mi
212 Dorchester Ave Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	640	$1,420	$2.22	14d	15	0.83mi
126 Woodruff Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	44d	1	0.86mi
106 Harrington St Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,875	$1.61	44d	1	1.12mi
117 Edtim Rd Syracuse, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	545	$1,295	$2.37	14d	1	1.13mi
1801 James St #2 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1244	$1,800	$1.45	14d	1	1.16mi
1140 Wolf St Apt 3 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	1.21mi
1132 Wolf St Unit 4 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	1.22mi
225 Marlborough Rd Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	14d	1	1.23mi
297 Norwood Ave Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1188	$2,050	$1.73	21d	1	1.23mi
2802 Lemoyne Ave Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,700	$1.72	14d	1	1.25mi
1618 James St #3 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	14d	1	1.26mi
912 Park St Unit 1 Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	44d	1	1.39mi
204 Mariposa St Unit pvt house Syracuse, NY	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,137	$1.89	14d	1	1.47mi
205 Beecher St Unit 3 Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	815	$1,100	$1.35	44d	1	1.47mi
746 E Laurel St Unit 2F Syracuse, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $179,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 662-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 579-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,333 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,333 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$5,333
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$5,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyncourt Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3617940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,650
• Composite: 29.71/100
• National rank: #11736
• State rank: #719 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lyncourt

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1075

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyncourt, NY
• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,993
• Household income: $44,712
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 24% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Swedish 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Vietnam, Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.91%
• Current HPI: 399.3284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+130.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $179,900 CNYIS
• 2018-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $101,300 Public Records
• 2015-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records
• 2014-09-08 Listed $106,900 CNYIS
• 2007-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,333 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.