14182 Pennock Ave #309

Apple Valley, MN 55124

$125,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 783 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,516/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$427
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-804/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-804/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westview Elementary (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #526 of 857 statewide, top 62%, 509 students, 45% FRL); Valley Middle School of Stem (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #156 of 258 statewide, top 62%, 1,076 students, 48% FRL); Apple Valley Senior High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,893 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 18% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $126k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.