14182 Pennock Ave #309 · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$125,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 783 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1983 $427/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Unit 309 at Pennock Place — one of Apple Valley's most sought-after condo communities. This third-floor unit has been thoughtfully updated and is truly move-in ready. Brand-new carpet runs throughout, giving the space a fresh, clean feel from the moment you walk in. A fresh coat of paint has brightened the space, and in-unit washer/dryer hookups mean no more trips to the shared laundry room down the hall. The best feature? Step out onto your private balcony and take in serene views of the sparkling community pool — the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or evening wind-downs. Pennock Place is a well-maintained, desirable complex with beautifully kept grounds and

Key facts

• Community pool
• Allow pets
• Private balcony

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• IN-UNIT WASHER DRYER HOOKUPS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL MAINTAINED COMPLEX
• BEAUTIFULLY KEPT GROUNDS
• ALLOW PETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Alliance Homeowners Association; Monthly association fee (includes cable TV, internet, hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, professional management, sewer, shared amenities, snow removal, water); Association laundry (coin-op) and other shared amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking and guest parking; One garage space (stall #309, approximately 12 x 20, 7' door height)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer (in street); Natural gas; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Attached residential condominium; One story; Main-level entry
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Block foundation; Roof replaced or aged 8 years or less
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone and vinyl exterior; Shared below-ground pool; Light tree coverage; Public transit within ~6 blocks; Association-maintained road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath (1 full)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: All living facilities on one level; Eat-in kitchen and informal dining area; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet; Common area / coin-op laundry available in association; In-hall laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-804/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westview Elementary (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #526 of 857 statewide, top 62%, 509 students, 45% FRL); Valley Middle School of Stem (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #156 of 258 statewide, top 62%, 1,076 students, 48% FRL); Apple Valley Senior High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,893 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 18% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $126k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $114,068 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-23,989
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-23,600
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$427
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $114,068

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-31	+0% $-67	+5% $-103	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-127	+0% $-67	+5% $-7	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-35	base $-67	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14191 Pennock Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,400	$1.62	26d	5	0.09mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,864	$1.91	1d	24	1.27mi
7802 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	26d	2	1.30mi
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,580	$1.49	0d	13	1.37mi
15380 Garrett Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1676	$1,680	$1.00	4d	10	1.38mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,865	$2.12	1d	17	1.39mi
12790 Germane Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1100	$1,420	$1.29	26d	1	1.39mi
12733 Germane Ave Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,580	$1.50	26d	5	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $427 · $5,124/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 687-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $125,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − HOA: −$5,124
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable loss: −$2,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $-159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+403.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $125,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,500 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.